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Are 90% of COVID-19 Deaths in England Fully-Vaccinated?!

Is it true that 90% of COVID-19 deaths in England are of fully-vaccinated people?!

Take a look at the viral claim, and find out what the facts really are!

 

Claim : 90% of COVID-19 Deaths in England Fully-Vaccinated!

The Expose UK has gone viral with yet another piece of COVID-19 misinformation.

This time, they are claiming that 90% of COVID-19 deaths in England are of fully-vaccinated people!

The latest data published by the UK Health Security Agency confirms deaths are rising dramatically among the triple vaccinated population whilst declining steadily among the not-vaccinated population in England.

With the most recent figures showing the fully vaccinated accounted for 9 in every 10 Covid-19 deaths over the past month; and the triple vaccinated accounted for 4 in every 5 of them.

 

 

This Is How The Expose Misleads You About COVID-19 Deaths in England

The Expose is notorious for creating and propagating fake news about COVID-19 and vaccines. Here are just two that I personally wrote about :

In this article, I will show you how The Expose misleads you about COVID-19 deaths in England.

Fact #1 : UK Government Releases Weekly Reports

The Expose likes to claim that the UK government “quietly” published the information, suggesting that they wanted to keep it under wraps.

The truth is the UK Health Security Agency has been publishing COVID-19 vaccine surveillance reports on a weekly basis since July 2021.

These are publicly available reports that are regularly released on schedule, not secret documents that The Expose came across.

Fact #2 : Percentages Are Used To Mislead You

Statistics are tricky, because they are easily used to mislead you. As vaccination rates go up, percentages are used to mislead you on the facts.

Consider a country with zero vaccination. 100% of COVID-19 deaths will be of unvaccinated people. Does that mean that vaccines are 100% effective? Of course, not.

How about a country with 100% vaccination? 100% of severe COVID-19 cases will be of vaccinated people. But that obviously does not mean that the vaccines are 100% useless.

That’s why fake news creators like to use percentage to mislead you. They are easy to understand, but they are also easily used to mislead you.

Read more : Are Most Severe COVID-19 Cases In Israel Fully Vaccinated?

Fact #3 : Report Warned About Wrong Interpretation Of Data

The weekly COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report that The Expose referred to, repeatedly warned about wrongly interpreting the data they issued.

In every table on COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths, you will see this warning :

This data should be interpreted with caution. See information below in footnote about the correct interpretation of these figures

And below every table on COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths is this warning :

In the context of very high vaccine coverage in the population, even with a highly effective vaccine, it is expected that a large proportion of cases, hospitalisations and deaths would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated and no vaccine is 100% effective. This is especially true because vaccination has been prioritised in individuals who are more susceptible or more at risk of severe disease.

Fact #4 : This Is Base Rate Fallacy At Work

As explained in Fact #3, we should expect more cases of vaccinated people getting severe COVID-19 than unvaccinated people, simply because there are far more vaccinated people than unvaccinated people.

This concept is sometimes difficult to grasp, which is why it’s being abused by fake news creators to trick you into thinking that vaccinated people are more likely to get severe COVID-19. That’s nonsense.

This is the Base Rate Fallacy at work, which Marc Rumilly demonstrates in this visualisation.

At first glance (left), it may appear that more vaccinated people are getting hospitalised than unvaccinated people.

But if you “zoom out” and look at the population as a whole (right), the risk profile is completely different. It is obvious now that unvaccinated people are far more likely to be hospitalised than vaccinated people.

Fact #5 : Data Includes Hospitalisation / Death With COVID-19

It is also important to note that the data in those reports include people who were hospitalised with COVID-19, and not for COVID-19.

For example, someone who was hospitalised for a broken leg may be found to have COVID-19, and would be counted as “Hospitalised” in these reports.

And if that person develops a fat embolism from that leg fracture and dies, he/she would be counted as a “Death” in these reports.

This was specifically pointed out in the report, as a warning at the bottom of every table on COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths :

Individuals in risk groups may also be more at risk of hospitalisation or death due to non-COVID-19 causes, and thus may be hospitalised or die with COVID-19 rather than because of COVID-19.

That is why we cannot simply jump into any conclusion based on these numbers.

Fact #6 : They Avoided Sharing Vaccine Efficacy Data

Interestingly, The Expose avoided sharing with you the vaccine efficacy data that were also posted in the same report.

It’s not surprising though, because they show that the vaccines protect against hospitalisation and death, even against the Omicron variant.

They also show that a third (booster) dose significantly increases protection against both Delta and Omicron variants.

Vaccine Effectiveness vs. Delta Variant

Status 2 Doses 3 Doses
0-3
months
4-6
months
Over 6
months
0-3
months
4-6
months
Over 6
months
COVID-19 Infection 65-80% 50-65% NA NA NA NA
Symptomatic Disease 65-90% 45-65% 40-60% 90-99% 90-95% NA
Hospitalisation 95-99% 80-90% 70-85% 95-99% NA NA
Death 95-99% 90-95% 80-99% 95-99% NA NA

Vaccine Effectiveness vs. Omicron Variant

Status 2 Doses 3 Doses
0-3
months
4-6
months
Over 6
months
0-3
months
4-6
months
Over 6
months
COVID-19 Infection NA NA NA NA NA NA
Symptomatic Disease 25-70% 5-30% 0-10% 50-75% 40-50% NA
Hospitalisation 65-85% 55-65% 30-35% 80-95% 75-85% NA
Death NA NA 40-70% 85-99% NA NA

Don’t risk your life or your family’s lives on the bad science and misinformation promoted by The Expose.

Please help me fight fake news, by sharing this fact check with your family and friends!

 

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Dr. Adrian Wong has been writing about tech and science since 1997, even publishing a book with Prentice Hall called Breaking Through The BIOS Barrier (ISBN 978-0131455368) while in medical school.

He continues to devote countless hours every day writing about tech, medicine and science, in his pursuit of facts in a post-truth world.

 

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